Talking Numbers-Jubilee 70%+1 Vs NASA 10 Million Strong

Another boring Monday!

Instead of sitting here in this chilly Nairobi weather, complaining about it, I decided to go through some Kenyan blogs, just trying to get a read. I had flipped through nearly a dozen including the famous Bikozulu, when I noticed Kachwenya.com.

And I swear would have ignored it too if not for the “talking numbers”

It’s not like I’m a sucker of politics or anything, it’s just because it’s election year and anything about August 8th, takes center stage.




By Kennedy Kachwenya of Kachwenya.com

Here we love numbers but more so, making sense of what they mean and their origin. Since we are heading to an election that many of the observers think will be close, it is important we look at the numbers being mentioned around by the major parties and coalitions.

NASA 10 Million Strong Votes Vs Jubilee 70% +1 Votes

Who has the numbers and who is dreaming? Let us cut through the propaganda and look at these numbers based on available facts and the realities of the Kenyan Politics

The known facts

Registered Voters according to the available IEBC numbers are 19,687,563

Jubilee won the 2013 election by 8000 votes, that was the number above 50%

Jubilee Candidates just like 2013 is Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputized by William Ruto

NASA Candidate is Raila Odinga with Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka as the running mate. NASA now has Musalia Mudavadi who vied for presidency in 2013 among their ranks as well as Isaac Ruto

For the sake of this analysis

Strong Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won in 2013 by 80% and above

Leaning Jubilee Counties are the counties that Uhuru won by between 60 % to 79 % of votes in 2013

Strong NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by 80% and above

Leaning NASA counties are the counties that Raila won in 2013 by between 60% to 79% of votes

Battle ground counties are the counties that either candidates won by below 60% of the votes

Raila won all the Western Counties by between 51% to 70% percent but Mudavadi was the main factor on that and him having moved to NASA means all the Western counties become Strong NASA counties

The numbers that Jubilee and NASA are talking about without Factoring in the voters turn out

Percentage wise NASA 10,000,000 strong votes would translate to winning the race by 50.8%

While Jubilee winning the race by 70% +1 would mean winning the election by 13,781,295

What Has Changed Since 2013 Elections

Kisii counties seem to have moved more towards NASA than they were in 2013. The guys who tried to defect to Jubilee had to run back and ask for forgiveness after realizing that  the voters were not with them

With no more MRC manenos in the Coastal region, the voters registration in coastal counties have really gone up. Only coastal counties were registering around 100% and more of the projected numbers by IEBC in the just concluded IEBC registration exercise. This partly explains the effort which has been made by Jubilee in trying to flip the region from NASA to them. Whether they have succeeded, is a story which will only be well told on the August 8 th .

Isaac Ruto and Mudavadi are now within the NASA camp. Mudavadi move means Western Kenya is now totally locked for NASA, while Ruto’s effect is still largely unknown. Somebody mentioned to me that Isaac Ruto’s move might help NASA win more Masaai votes but very little from the Kalenjin heartland including Bomet. So in our analysis Bomet remains a strong Jubilee zone

Governor Alfred Mutua Moved to Support Jubilee, though there are reports that he is not having it easy with his reelection campaigns, and for that Machakos remain a strong NASA Zone. Ngilu moved from supporting Jubilee to working with Kalonzo or rather not saying anything bad about NASA. That fact has moved Kitui from leaning NASA to strong NASA county

The Analysis Based on The Absolute Numbers of Registered Voters

Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures

Strong Jubilee Counties

Registered Voters

Leaning Jubilee Counties

Registered voters

Kiambu 1,173,593 Uasin Gishu

451485

Muranga 590775 West Pokot

178989

Kirinyaga 351162

Nyeri 460,806

Meru 712,378

Embu 315,668

Nyandarua 336,322

Bomet 325,606

Kericho 379,815

Nandi 349,340

Elgeyo Marakwet

178,975

Tharaka Nithi

216,522

Baringo 227,918

Nakuru 948,668

Likipia 239,497

Mandera 168,478

Total 6,975,523 630474

Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning Jubilee Counties

7,605,997

NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures

Strong NASA counties

Registered Voters

Leaning NASA Counties

Registered Voters

Homabay 476150 Mombasa 596485

Kisumu 548868 Kisii 544753

Siaya 447745 Nyamira 279685

Migori 388967 Turkana 188617

Kakamega 746877 Tana River

118189

Vihiga 267481

Busia 347911

Bungoma 559897

Machakos 627168

Kitui 477655

Makueni 421180

Kilifi 510484

Kwale 282436

Taita Taveta

155904

Total 6,258,723 1,727,729

Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning NASA Counties

7,986,452

Battle Ground Counties

TransNzoia 339832

Nairobi 2304386

Kajiado 409266

Narok 347427

Isiolo 72548

Garissa 132486

Marsabit 143541

Lamu 70224

Samburu 79477

Wajir 155,916

Total registered Voters for The Battle Ground Counties

4,055,103

Notes from the above tables, based on absolute voters registration figures by IEBC

The voters registration from the strong and leaning Jubilee counties add up to 7,605,997

The voters registration from the strong and Leaning NASA counties add up to 7,986,452

The voters registration from the battle ground counties add up to 4,055,103

NASA Strong and leaning counties have 380,455 more registered voters than Jubilee strong and leaning counties

Out of the ten battle ground counties Raila won eight in 2013 while Uhuru won only two, that is Isiolo and Kajiado

If you assume that the Battle ground would be divided down in the middle then NASA’s claim of 10 Million strong votes makes sense. That is 7,986,452 + 2,027,551 = 10,014,003

If you make the same assumption for Jubilee, we are still far away from their 70% +1 (13,781,295) claim. That is 7,605,997 + 2,027,551 = 9,633,549

All the above assumptions and analysis take absolute numbers of the voters registration without factoring in the turn out. NASA starts with 380,455 more registered voters in their strong and leaning counties but if you factor in the turn out based on what happened in 2013 then the swing becomes real and Jubilee moves ahead by 133,856 voters. Let’s look at the numbers after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out.

The Analysis After Factoring in Turnout and % Share of Votes From Battle Ground Counties in 2013

Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring 2013 Turn out

Strong Jubilee Counties

2013 Turnout

Voters after factoring in 2013 Turn out

Leaning Jubilee Counties

2013 Turnout

Voters after Factoring in 2013 Turn out

Kiambu 90.7% 1,064,449 Uasin Gishu

86.1% 388729

Muranga 93.5% 552,375 West Pokot

89.6% 160374

Kirinyaga 91.1% 319,909

Nyeri 92.9% 428,089

Meru 88.2% 628,317

Embu 87.8% 277,157

Nyandarua 93.7% 315,134

Bomet 90.0% 293,045

Kericho 90.5% 343,733

Nandi 89.7% 313,134

Elgeyo Marakwet

91.8% 164,299

Tharaka Nithi

89.4% 193571

Baringo 90.7% 206722

Nakuru 88.6% 840520

Likipia 90.2% 216026

Mandera 84.1% 141690

Total 6,298,1

Total 6,975,523 630474

Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning Jubilee Counties

7,605,997

NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures

Strong NASA counties

Registered Voters

Leaning NASA Counties

Registered Voters

Homabay 476150 Mombasa 596485

Kisumu 548868 Kisii 544753

Siaya 447745 Nyamira 279685

Migori 388967 Turkana 188617

Kakamega 746877 Tana River

118189

Vihiga 267481

Busia 347911

Bungoma 559897

Machakos 627168

Kitui 477655

Makueni 421180

Kilifi 510484

Kwale 282436

Taita Taveta

155904

Total 6,258,723 1,727,729

Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning NASA Counties

7,986,452

Battle Ground Counties

Battle Ground Counties Registered Voters

TransNzoia 339832

Nairobi 2304386

Kajiado 409266

Narok 347427

Isiolo 72548

Garissa 132486

Marsabit 143541

Lamu 70224

Samburu 79477

Wajir 155,916

Total registered Voters for The Battle Ground Counties

4,055,103

Notes from the above tables, based on absolute voters registration figures by IEBC

The voters registration from the strong and leaning Jubilee counties add up to 7,605,997

The voters registration from the strong and Leaning NASA counties add up to 7,986,452

The voters registration from the battle ground counties add up to 4,055,103

NASA Strong and leaning counties have 380,455 more registered voters than Jubilee strong and leaning counties

Out of the ten battle ground counties Raila won eight in 2013 while Uhuru won only two, that is Isiolo and Kajiado

If you assume that the Battle ground would be divided down in the middle then NASA’s claim of 10 Million strong votes makes sense. That is 7,986,452 + 2,027,551 = 10,014,003

If you make the same assumption for Jubilee, we are still far away from their 70% +1 (13,781,295) claim. That is 7,605,997 + 2,027,551 = 9,633,549

All the above assumptions and analysis take absolute numbers of the voters registration without factoring in the turn out. NASA starts with 380,455 more registered voters in their strong and leaning counties but if you factor in the turn out based on what happened in 2013 then the swing becomes real and Jubilee moves ahead by 133,856 voters. Let’s look at the numbers after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out.

The Analysis After Factoring in Turnout and % Share of Votes From Battle Ground Counties in 2013

Jubilee Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring 2013 Turn out

Strong Jubilee Counties

2013 Turnout

Voters after factoring in 2013 Turn out

Leaning Jubilee Counties

2013 Turnout

Voters after Factoring in 2013 Turn out

Kiambu 90.7% 1,064,449 Uasin Gishu

86.1% 388729

Muranga 93.5% 552,375 West Pokot

89.6% 160374

Kirinyaga 91.1% 319,909

Nyeri 92.9% 428,089

Meru 88.2% 628,317

Embu 87.8% 277,157

Nyandarua 93.7% 315,134

Bomet 90.0% 293,045

Kericho 90.5% 343,733

Nandi 89.7% 313,134

Elgeyo Marakwet

91.8% 164,299

Tharaka Nithi

89.4% 193571

Baringo 90.7% 206722

Nakuru 88.6% 840520

Likipia 90.2% 216026

Mandera 84.1% 141690

Total 6,298,170 549,103

Total voters of the Strong and Leaning Jubilee Counties after factoring the 2013 turn out

6,847,273

NASA Counties and their Numbers according to IEBC figures after factoring in 2013 Turn out

Strong NASA counties

2013 Turn Out

Registered Voters

Leaning NASA Counties

2013 Turn Out

Registered Voters

Homabay 94.1% 448,057 Mombasa 66.6% 397,259

Kisumu 90.4% 496,177 Kisii 84.4% 459,772

Siaya 92.5% 414,164 Nyamira 83.7% 234,096

Migori 92.0% 357,850 Turkana 76.2% 143,726

Kakamega 83.7% 625,136 Tana River

81.3% 96,088

Vihiga 82.6% 220939

Busia 87.9% 305,814

Bungoma 85.5% 478,712

Machakos 83.6% 524,312

Kitui 85.0% 406,007

Makueni 84.6% 356,318

Kilifi 64.9% 331,304

Kwale 72.0% 203,354

Taita Taveta

81.1% 126,438

Total 5,294,582 1,330,941

Total Registered voters of the Strong and Leaning NASA Counties

6,625,523

Battle ground counties voters after factoring 2013 turnout and the Percentage share of votes in 2013

Battle Ground Counties

2013 Turn Out

Voters

Jubilee % Share of votes 2013

NASA % share of votes in 2013

TransNzoia 81.7% 277,643 38.1 47.1

Nairobi 81.6% 1,880,379 47.2 49.4

Kajiado 87.1% 356,471 52.8 44.8

Narok 89.8% 311,989 46.7 50.6

Isiolo 87.5% 63,480 55.7 29.8

Garissa 79.8% 105,724 45.6 48.9

Marsabit 85.9% 123,302 47.3 48.8

Lamu 84.0% 58,988 40.6 52.7

Samburu 88.3% 70,178 41.1 57.8

Wajir 84.9% 132,373 39.0 49.9

The average Percentage votes by Jubilee and NASA (Cord) in 2013

45.4

48.0

Assumed share of votes based on 2013 percentage share of votes

1,534,759 1,622,653

Total registered Voters for The Battle Ground Counties after factoring 2013 Turn out

3,380,527

Notes From the above tables after factoring in the 2013 voters turn out

Jubilee strong and Leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to

6,847,273

NASA strong and leaning counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to

6,625,523

Battle Ground Counties voters based on 2013 turn out add up to 3,380,527

If you assume that the battle ground counties will go down the way it happened in 2013 in terms of turnout and the percentage share of votes then the Jubilee numbers add to 8,382,032

(6,847,273+1,534,759)

If you make the same assumption for NASA then their numbers add up to

8,248,176 (6,625,523 +1,622,653)

In this scenario, Jubilee moves ahead of NASA by

133,856 voters

The above figures are far below 70% +1 for Jubilee and below 10 Million strong for NASA

Two counties that NASA had a huge problem when it came to turnout in 2013 were Kilifi (64.9%) and Mombasa(66.6%). The positive news for NASA is that MRC issue that was thought to be the main contributing factor to the low turnout in 2013 in coastal counties is no longer there.

Still turnout was generally a problem for the NASA strong and leaning counties in 2013, with average being 83% while Jubilee turn out average for their strong and leaning counties was 90%

All the above analysis are based on the assumption that 2017 turn out will be the same as 2013 which in reality we know is not true but was used for the sake of understanding the numbers which both sides are talking about.

In both the two scenarios the election will be close and we have not factored in the effect of the third parties’ candidates who would chip votes here and there from both the major candidates. In particular, you have to pay attention to Ekuro Aukot in Turkana, Nyagah in Embu, Dida in Isiolo and parts of North Eastern and  Jirongo in the pockets of Western Kenya.
Courtesy of Kachwenya.com

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